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WTO / 2021 TRADE FORCAST
STORY: WTO / 2021 TRADE FORCAST
TRT: 4:34
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 04 OCTOBER 2021, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
04 OCTOBER 2021, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Pan right, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Pan right, WTO logo at entrance
3. Pan left, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives for a press conference
4. Wide shot, press conference under way
5. Wide shot, press conference under way
6. SOUDNBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Our economists now estimate that the volume of world merchandise trade will increase by 10.8 per cent in 2021, and then by 4.7 per cent in 2022. Quarterly growth should slow in the second half of this year, as the volume of trade approaches its pre-pandemic trend. While it is not captured by this forecast, trade in commercial services remains well below its pre-pandemic level.”
7. Med shot, Dr Okonjo-Iweala addresses journalists
8. SOUDNBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The trade recovery is strong, but unequal, mirroring the K-shaped recovery in global economic output. Some regions -- those with access to vaccines and sufficient fiscal space – are recovering strongly, while poorer regions with mostly unvaccinated populations are lagging behind. Moreover, the risks to the outlook are firmly on the downside. The pandemic itself is far from over, and new outbreaks and variants of COVID-19 could weigh on trade and output through 2022.”
9. Med shot, WTO economists Robert Koopman and Coleman Nee listen to Dr Okonjo-Iweala
10. SOUDNBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“All things considered, however, events could have turned out much worse - and the multilateral trading system can take some credit for this. Trade has been a critical tool in combatting the pandemic, as a means of accessing food and medical supplies, and more recently, as a means of producing and distributing vaccines. Trade is also an important driver of economic growth, and this forecast underscores how important trade will be in underpinning the global economic recovery. The trade figures are the latest proof of how inequitable access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence across regions. The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of COVID-19 will emerge, setting back the health and economic progress we have made to date. As we approach the 12th Ministerial Conference, members must come together and agree on a strong WTO response to the pandemic, which would provide a foundation for more rapid vaccine production and equitable distribution. This is necessary to sustain the global economic recovery. Vaccine policy is economic policy – and, as I've always reiterated, it's also trade policy.”
11. Med shot, photographer during press conference
12. SOUDNBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“So for MC12. Look, one has to proceed very cautiously. A lot of things make for success, and we have quite a few exciting things happening. We are hoping that one, or two, or three deliverables will come as outcomes, but we have progress on a number of issues that are very important. So, one cannot say until the deed is done at the WTO, but I think that there is a lot of hard work ongoing now. Yes, you're right that things are tough, with respect to... let's take, fisheries. But as I said before, everyone admits that this is the most momentum they've seen in a long time.”
13. Med shot, camerapersons during press conference
14. SOUDNBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“On the report that I'm going to resign. I just say: it's fake news. That's all I have to say. I'm here. You know, I'm enjoying my job. We are just starting to work towards MC12. So, let's not spend a lot of energy on fake news.”
15. Med shot, press release on desk
16. Med shot, journalist reads press release
17. Med shot, Dr Okonjo-Iweala speaks to reporters
18. Wide shot, Dr Okonjo-Iweala speaks to reporters
The resurgence of global economic activity in the first half of 2021 lifted merchandise trade above its pre-pandemic peak, leading World Trade Organization (WTO) economists to upgrade their forecasts for trade in 2021 and 2022.
Speaking to reporters in Geneva today (04 Oct), WTO Director-General said the Organization’s now estimate that the volume of world merchandise trade will increase by 10.8 per cent in 2021, and then by 4.7 per cent in 2022. She said, “Quarterly growth should slow in the second half of this year, as the volume of trade approaches its pre-pandemic trend. While it is not captured by this forecast, trade in commercial services remains well below its pre-pandemic level.”
WTO said supply-side issues such as semiconductor scarcity and port backlogs may strain supply chains and weigh on trade in particular areas, but they are unlikely to have large impacts on global aggregates. The biggest downside risks come from the pandemic itself.
Behind the strong overall trade increase, however, there is significant divergence across countries, with some developing regions falling well short of the global average.
Okonjo-Iweala said, “The trade recovery is strong, but unequal, mirroring the K-shaped recovery in global economic output. Some regions -- those with access to vaccines and sufficient fiscal space – are recovering strongly, while poorer regions with mostly unvaccinated populations are lagging behind. Moreover, the risks to the outlook are firmly on the downside. The pandemic itself is far from over, and new outbreaks and variants of COVID-19 could weigh on trade and output through 2022.”
The WTO chief stressed that, “all things considered, however, events could have turned out much worse - and the multilateral trading system can take some credit for this.” She said trade has been a critical tool in combatting the pandemic, as a means of accessing food and medical supplies, and more recently, as a means of producing and distributing vaccines. She said trade is also an important driver of economic growth, and “this forecast underscores how important trade will be in underpinning the global economic recovery.”
Okonjo-Iweala said, “The trade figures are the latest proof of how inequitable access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence across regions. The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of COVID-19 will emerge, setting back the health and economic progress we have made to date.”
The WTO Director-General said members must come together and agree on a strong WTO response to the pandemic, which would provide a foundation for more rapid vaccine production and equitable distribution, as the 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) approaches. She said, “This is necessary to sustain the global economic recovery. Vaccine policy is economic policy – and, as I've always reiterated, it's also trade policy.”
Okonjo-Iweala said one has to proceed “very cautiously” for MC12. She said, “A lot of things make for success, and we have quite a few exciting things happening. We are hoping that one, or two, or three deliverables will come as outcomes, but we have progress on a number of issues that are very important. So, one cannot say until the deed is done at the WTO, but I think that there is a lot of hard work ongoing now.” She said things are tough but “everyone admits that this is the most momentum they've seen in a long time.”
Asked about reports of her pending resignation, the WTO Director-General said this was “fake news.” She said, “I'm here. You know, I'm enjoying my job. We are just starting to work towards MC12. So, let's not spend a lot of energy on fake news.”
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