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GENEVA / TRADE DEVELOPMENT REPORT
STORY: GENEVA / TRADE DEVELOPMENT REPORT
TRT: 2:33
SOURCE: UNTV CH
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 03 OCTOBER 2022, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Med shot, UN Geneva flag alley
2. Wide shot, press room with panel of speakers
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
“We are in a world of cascading and interconnected crises: climate change, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. As the Secretary General of the UN has said, we are in a perfect storm. It is a difficult moment, no doubt, for all of us, but also for policymakers, because choices matter.”
4. Med shot, cameras, journalist
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
“The synchronized lowdown is hitting all regions but is ringing alarm bells for developing countries. Our calculations show that the average growth rate in developing countries will drop below 3%, as it did in the last decade of the 1980s.”
6. Close up, camera screen showing speakers
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
“Some 90 developing countries have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar this year. 90 developing countries. And over a third of them have seen that by more than a 10% devaluation.”
8. Med shot, journalists taking notes
9. SOUNDBITE (English) Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
“We need to prioritize progress on a multilateral legal framework for handling debt restructuring, including all official and private creditors, and we also recommend a program of reforms in developing economies to boost productive investment and constrain capital moving to exploit tax loopholes.”
10. Med shot, journalists taking notes
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
“The global economy is not yet in a recession. It's heading towards one, and there are downside risks that could push it into one, depending on how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, respond to the current situation. So, I think it’s really watching what policymakers are going to do over the course of the next four to six months.”
12. Med shot, speaker speaking
13. Med shot, Staff monitoring
14. Close up shot, hands of journalist typing
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) urges advanced economies to change course in their monetary and fiscal policies to avert global recession.
Excessive monetary tightening and inadequate financial support leave developing countries exposed to cascading crises of debt, health, and climate underlined UNCTAD in its annual report on trade and development released today.
“We are in a world of cascading and interconnected crises: climate change, Covid-19, and the war in Ukraine,” said Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary General, at a press conference today (10 Oct) in Geneva.
“As the Secretary General of the UN said, we are in a perfect storm. It is a difficult moment, no doubt, for all of us, but also for policymakers, because choices matter.”
Relying on higher interest rates to bring down prices without generating a recession is an imprudent gamble, warns the report.
Central banks decisions to increase rates impact emerging economies with high levels of private and public debt.
Fiscal tightening in developed economies, combined with the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have already turned a global slowdown into a downturn.
Current monetary and fiscal policies risk inflicting worse damage than the financial crisis of 2008 emphasized UNCTAD Secretary General.
“The synchronized slowdown is hitting all regions but is ringing alarm bells for developing countries. Our calculations show that the average growth rate in developing countries will drop below 3%, as it did in the last decade of the 1980s,” she said.
In addition, “some 90 developing countries have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar this year. And over a third of them have seen that by more than a 10% devaluation.”
UNCTAD expects the world economy to grow 2.5% in 2022, and to decelerate further to 2.2% in 2023.
That will leave real GDP still below its pre-pandemic trend and a cumulative shortfall of more than $17 trillion -- close to 20% of the world’s income.
This is insufficient for sustainable development, further squeezing public and private finances and damaging employment prospects.
The report recommends advanced economies change course in their monetary and fiscal policies to avoid inflicting worse damage than the financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 shock in 2020.
With inflation already beginning to ease in developed countries, UNCTAD calls for a course correction in favour of policy measures targeting price spikes in energy, food, and other vital sectors directly.
“We need to prioritize progress on a multilateral legal framework for handling debt restructuring, including all official and private creditors. And we also recommend a program of reforms in developing economies to boost productive investment and constrain capital moving to exploit tax loopholes,” added Grynspan.
Recommendations echoed by Richard Kozul-Wright, head of the team in charge of the report: “The global economy is not yet in a recession. It's heading towards one, and there are downside risks that could push it into one, depending on how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, respond to the current situation. So, I think it’s really watching what policymakers are going to do over the course of the next four to six months.”
UNCTAD provides economic and trade analysis, facilitates consensus-building and offers technical assistance to help developing countries use trade, investment, finance, and technology for inclusive and sustainable development.
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