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WTO / 2023 TRADE FORECASTS
STORY: WTO / 2023 TRADE FORECASTS
TRT: 5:48
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 05 OCTOBER 2022, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, pan right, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Med shot, zoom in, WTO logo at entrance
3. Wide shot, pan left, people arriving at the WTO press conference room
4. Close up, pan right, press release on journalist’s desk
5. Med shot, journalist reads press release
6. Wide shot, journalists working in the press conference room
7. Med shot, journalist reads press release
8. Med shot, journalist reads press release and takes notes
9. Wide shot, pan left, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives for a press conference
10. Med shot, photographers taking pictures in the press conference room
11. Wide shot, officials are seated for the press conference
12. Med shot, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala during press conference
13. Wide shot, officials during press conference
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Today, the global economy faces a multi-pronged crisis. Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world, including in the United States. In Europe, high energy prices are squeezing households and businesses, and in China, COVID-19 outbreaks continue to disrupt production and ordinary economic life. Low-income developing countries, in particular, face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress. These factors are weighing heavily on the outlook for global trade.”
15. Med shot, officials listen to press conference
16. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably. As I had said in earlier remarks, we are now predicting a modest forecast of one… of one percent increase in merchandise trade volumes, down from the 3.4 percent we had expected as recently as April.”
17. Med shot, WTO staff following the press conference online
18. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Looking ahead, a better response to the supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by the past two years is to build a more diversified, less concentrated base for producing goods and services. In addition to boosting economic growth, this would contribute to supply resilience and long-term price stability by mitigating exposure to localized exogenous shocks, such as extreme weather events, which seem to become more and more frequent. Just as trade was a tool that helped us to cope with a pandemic, we believe we can also help us meet current and future challenges.”
19. Med shot, journalist listens to the press conference
20. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The issue is: what are the causes of the inflationary pressures? If you're responding to causes that that do respond to raising interest rates, then you know, then that is fine. But there's some thought that one has to watch out, that if there's supply-side constraints, you know, that are not really responsive to interest rates, then you risk overshooting. Besides, you know, there is a lag in looking at these numbers. So, since it's a lag, you know, there's also a danger that you could misjudge and overshoot. And that's what people are worried about. Has it happened? We don't know yet. But there is worry of the markets that with the lag, this could happen.”
21. Wide shot, press conference underway
22. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO): “Obviously, the outlook for the global economy has darkened, and all the risks on the downside. And so, this was causing a lot of worry. And if you, if you sort of load over this the geopolitical tensions that we're seeing some of it arising from the war in Ukraine that you can see the mood, there is a lot of worry because of uncertainty. Business doesn't like uncertainty. Economists don't do very well with uncertainty. So, this is worrying. But at the same time, I think that the good mood that prevailed after MC12 (the Twelfth Ministerial Conference) gives us some basis that the work we have ahead of us. We have now shown we’re capable of coming together at very difficult times to do deals that are multilateral. So, I think some of that confidence back, and as you said, a bit of good feeling, leads us to believe that in spite of the difficulties facing the world economy, we could still do some of the work ahead of us. I mean, MC 12 was good. We got some success, but that doesn't mean our work is finished. And we should absolutely not be complacent. Just because we got some successes. We have (work) ahead of us. We need to work hard to be part of the solution to the global problems we're seeing now.”
23. Wide shot, press conference underway.
24. Med shot, pan right, officials on the podium during press conference
25. Close up, Deputy Director-General Anabel González talking during the press conference
26. Med shot, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and Anabel González during the press conference
27. Wide shot, officials during press conference
28. Wide shot, side view, officials during press conference
29. Med shot, journalist asking question
30. Med shot, journalist asking question
31. Close up, journalist turning off his microphone
32. Med shot, officials listening during press conference
33. Close up, journalist taking notes
34. Wide shot, journalists and officials during press conference
35. Med shot, officials taking notes
36. Close up, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala listening during the press conference
37. Close-up, Anabel González listening during the press conference
38. Close up, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala takes notes during the press conference
39. Med shot, officials during press conference
40. Wide shot, side view, press conference underway
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), world trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy.
WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 3.5 percent in 2022—slightly better than the 3 percent forecast in April.
For 2023, however, they foresee a 1 percent increase—down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4 percent.
Import demand is expected to soften as growth slows in major economies for different reasons. In Europe, high energy prices stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war will squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs.
In the United States, tightening monetary policy will hit interest-sensitive spending in housing, motor vehicles, and fixed investment areas.
China continues to grapple with COVID-19 outbreaks and production disruptions paired with weak external demand.
Finally, growing import bills for fuels, food, and fertilizers could lead to food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries.
In their April forecast, released only weeks after the start of the war in Ukraine, WTO economists had to rely on simulations to generate reasonable growth assumptions without hard data about the war's impact.
As events have unfolded, the WTO's GDP projections for 2022 turned out to be broadly correct.
The estimates for 2023, however, now appear overly optimistic, as energy prices have skyrocketed, inflation has become more broad-based, and the war shows no sign of letting up.
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General, detailed the figures at a press conference held in Geneva with virtual and in-person participants.
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