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STORY: UN / WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS
TRT: 02:09
SOURCE: UNIFEED
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 11 JULY 2024, NEW YORK CITY / FILE
FILE – NEW YORK CITY
1. Wide shot, exterior, United Nations Headquarters
11 JULY 2024, NEW YORK CITY
2. Wide shot, speakers, journalists, press room
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Navid Hanif, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA):
“The size of the world’s population is likely to peak in the mid-2080s. From 8.2 billion people in 2024, which is this year, to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.”
4. Med shot, speakers
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Navid Hanif, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA):
“The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be six per cent lower—or 700 million lower —than anticipated a decade ago. This represents a major swift compared to a decade ago over the important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet.”
6. Wide shot, speakers, journalists
7. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA):
“The earlier occurrence of a peak in the projected size of the population is due to several factors, including lower than expected levels of fertility in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.”
8. Wide shot, speakers, journalists
9. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA):
“Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is raising once again, that’s good news. By 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under age 18. Number 4, for some populations, immigration would be the main driver of future growth.”
10. Wide shot, speakers, journalists
11. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA):
“The impact of having a larger population, that population does continue to grow, so the impact that humans have on the environment continues to increase just as a function of how many of us there are. But at the same time, one thing that we try to emphasize in this report is that human behaviors matter more than human numbers when it comes to the impact on the environment.”
12. Med shot, speakers
According to a new UN report, the world’s population will peak in the mid-2080s, growing over the next sixty years from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will return to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
Briefing the press on the report ‘The World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results’ published today (11 Jul) Navid Hanif, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, said that the size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be six per cent lower—or 700 million fewer—than anticipated a decade ago.
He added, “This represents a major swift compared to a decade ago over the important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet.”
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) explained that the earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.
He also said, ““Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is raising once again, that’s good news. By 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under age 18. Number 4, for some populations, immigration would be the main driver of future growth.”
Answering a question, he said, “The impact of having a larger population, that population does continue to grow, so the impact that humans have on the environment continues to increase just as a function of how many of us there are. But at the same time, one thing that we try to emphasize in this report is that human behaviors matter more than human numbers when it comes to the impact on the environment.”
Globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990.
In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1—the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration—and nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14 per cent over the next thirty years.
For another 48 countries and areas, including Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Türkiye and Viet Nam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or later.
In nine countries of this last group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
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