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STORY: WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK 2026
TRT: 07:34
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 19 MARCH 2026, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Med shot, WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger holding Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026 report
2. Close up, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026 report
3. Close up, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026 report
4. Med shot, photographers during press conference
5. Close up, participant consulting report
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“As you know, this year's GTOS arrives at a moment of profound economic uncertainty characterized by regional conflict in the Middle East and rapid technological change driven by AI.”
7. Close up, pan up, journalist typing on a computer during conference
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“The report paints a picture of a global economy and a multilateral trading system facing serious challenges but also demonstrating surprising resilience.”
9. Close up, pan up, participant consulting report
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“Under our baseline forecast scenario, world merchandise trade volume growth would slow from a stronger-than-expected 4.6 per cent in 2025 to a modest 1.9 per cent in 2026 before rebounding to 2.6 per cent in 2027. Several factors contributed to the magnitude of the rise in 2025, including frontloading of imports in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes, and surging AI-related investment. The one-time boost from frontloading is unlikely to be repeated this year while AI-related investment is expected to ease, both of which would contribute to slower trade growth in 2026. If sustained, however, the recent rise in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict could shave another 0.5 percentage points off merchandise trade volume growth this year, lowering it from 1.9 per cent to 1.4 per cent.”
11. Close up, pan up, participant consulting report
12. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“Although it is generally less volatile than merchandise trade, services trade would still be negatively impacted by a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, both directly (through disruptions to transport and travel) and indirectly (though slower GDP growth due to higher energy prices). Together, these effects would subtract 0.7 percentage points from our baseline forecast for services trade growth in 2026, reducing it from 4.8 per cent to 4.1 per cent.”
13. Med shot, journalists filming during press conference
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“The Middle East conflict also threatens global food security since shipping disruptions and higher energy costs reduce the supply and raise the cost of fertilizer. A prolonged interruption in supply could ripple through food systems, prompting farmers to reduce their use of fertilizers and plant less input-intensive crops. Under these circumstances, it is essential to keep global food trade channels open and predictable, allowing food supplies to flow to where they are most needed.”
15. Close up, conference under way, journalist taking notes
16. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“If the Middle East conflict is short lived, and if the strong contribution from AI-enabling goods trade is repeated in 2026, world merchandise trade volume growth could be 0.5 percentage points higher than in our baseline projection, raising it from 1.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent.”
17. Close up, conference under way, journalist taking notes
18. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist:
“Of course, the big unknown is the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on our baseline forecasts. If elevated energy prices persist for the rest of the year, we expect that growth in world GDP would fall from our baseline prediction of 2.8 per cent in 2026 to 2.5 per cent before recovering in 2027. And we predict that this would shave half a percentage point off our baseline prediction for merchandise trade volume growth for 2026, dropping it to 1.4 per cent. Growth would then rebound to 2.8 per cent in 2027, since oil prices are assumed in our modelling to recede by then.”
19. Close up, conference under way, journalist taking notes
20. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist:
“This year's report also has an analytical chapter focused on the share of global trade that is subject to statutory MFN tariffs. This is not a comprehensive measure of the health of the rules-based system, but it provides one indicator that can be objectively measured. Last year at this time, and taking account of trade actions through the end of 2024, we reported that this share stood at 80 per cent, a reminder of the continuing importance of the rules-based system despite challenging times. Our updated calculations in this year's report reflect the impact of tariff actions in 2025 and through the end of February 2026. As the Director General noted, this share rose and fell during this period, finally settling at 72 per cent currently. The takeaway is the message that the Director General emphasized: the MFN share has declined substantially, reflecting an erosion of one of the core principles of the rules-based system; but nearly three quarters of world merchandise trade still crosses borders under MFN tariffs.”
21. Close up, conference under way, journalist taking notes
22. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“I think the difficult geopolitics we live in with conflicts in several parts of the world makes it even more so that we really need to be that island of stability. You've noticed that throughout all this unpredictability, the WTO rules have continued to serve for, as we said, almost three quarters of goods trade. And this is analytically there, so anyone who wants to really look at the methodology and so on, can see it. And that is because it provides the stability, the predictability that enables business to function.”
23. Wide shot, conference under way, journalists taking notes
24. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist:
25. “The basic economics of the income and trade patterns that would be affected by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz tends to follow the export position or import position of the regions and countries when it comes to energy. And countries that are net energy importers will suffer from the rise in energy prices that is currently occurring. And those countries will have less income, and with less income will have less ability to import.”
26. Close up, participant asking question
27. Close up, participant asking question
28. Close up, participant asking question
29. Close up, officials during conference
World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions. Prospects could still improve if the conflict ends quickly and the boom in AI spending continues.
The latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on 19 March provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9 per cent in 2026 from 4.6 per cent in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs. World merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2027. Commercial services trade growth will ease to 4.8 per cent in 2026 after this year's 5.3 per cent rise, then accelerate again to 5.1 per cent in 2027. Together, goods and services trade will grow 2.7 per cent in 2026 compared with 4.7 per cent in 2025. Global GDP growth is projected to moderate slightly from 2.9 per cent in 2025 to 2.8 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to 1.0 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports. This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4 per cent in the high energy price scenario. Services trade would also grow at a slower rate of 4.1 per cent in 2026.
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