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STORY: FAO / HORMUZ CRISIS
TRT: 03:40
SOURCE: FAO
RESTRICTIONS: PLEASE CREDIT FAO ON SCREEN
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY / RECENT
FAO - FILE
1. Wide shot, FAO headquartes
2. Close-up, FAO logo
11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY
3. Wide shot, Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist, and David Laborde, Director of FAO Agrifood Economics, in the FAO Situation Room
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, FAO:
"The risks are very clear now. We have the risk of vessels not moving, huge gap of inputs to the world, which will affect yields and will affect this stability that we have right now in this month or half of a month more. Clock is central. If we don’t accelerate the problem, that risk will exacerbate, and therefore we will have higher prices, food inflation, and significant economic impacts because it’s not just food. It's inputs, plastics, helium for cooling facilities, all the transportation. So, it's a lot more complex than just the food system."
2017, CABO VERDE
5. Various shots, vessels in a port
11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, FAO:
"The clock is ticking. Because everything that relates to the agrifood system is linked to the crop calendar. If we don't follow the crop calendar and we don't have the inputs in the time that is needed for planting and so on and so forth, that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs, and therefore they could have lower yields. That will affect the next season, the next half of the year, or potentially the next year. So that’s the level of urgency we have right now because the last thing we want is less yields for the next half of the year and for the next year, higher food prices, commodity prices, and higher food inflation."
11 SEPTEMBER 2024, SANTO ANTÔNIO DO LEVERGER, MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL
7. Aerial shot, integrated system of beef cattle breeding and teak forestry
16 SEPTEMBER 2024, COTONOU, BENIN
8. Wide shot, rice harvesting
20 DECEMBER 2022, SAKON NAKHON PROVINCE, THAILAND
9. Med shot, women processing red rice
11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY
10. SOUNDBITE (English) David Laborde, Director of FAO Agrifood Economics:
"We have a problem of finance: finance for farmers, finance for some household that are facing a cost of living already because energy price is rising, finance problem for countries, in particular countries that are already in debt and will be also in very big trouble if interest rate start to pick up again if we have inflation."
6-12 JULY 2025, COTACACHI, ECUADOR
11. Wide shot, Indigenous female farmers sell their organic production in the local food market in Cotacachi
14 AUGUST 2025, DÜZCE PROVINCE, TÜRKIYE
12. Close-up, price tag in a food market
13. Med shot, man buying food
11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY
14. SOUNDBITE (English) David Laborde, Director of FAO Agrifood Economics:
"In order to have trade, we need the capacity of the ships to move, but we also need the right type of trade policy and regulation. What we have seen unfortunately, and this is happening in all crises, it is countries starting to say, "Let's keep what we have. Even when we produce it." We start to see restriction on energy products, we start to see restrictions on fertilizer, including from the large suppliers of fertilizer to the world."
23-28 FEBRUARY 2025, BINAYI TRIVENI RURAL MUNICIPALITY, NEPAL
15. Various shots, women packaging fertilizer
11 APRIL 2026, ROME, ITALY
16. SOUNDBITE (English) Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, FAO:
"That’s why we keep insisting, let’s start to help the vessels to move, so that we can resolve the risks that we can resolve today. El Niño, there are different actions that we need to put in place. It's more out of our control. But the Strait of Hormuz is something that governments through diplomatic measures can resolve and have to resolve to not exacerbate the situation."
FAO - FILE
17. Med shot, FAO flag
18. Aerial view, FAO headquarters
Ships carrying critical agricultural inputs must start moving through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible to ward off the risks of a dangerous spike in food price inflation later this year that could trigger a cascade of effects similar to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist said, "The risks are very clear now. We have the risk of vessels not moving, huge gap of inputs to the world, which will affect yields and will affect this stability that we have right now in this month or half of a month more. Clock is central. If we don’t accelerate the problem, that risk will exacerbate, and therefore we will have higher prices, food inflation, and significant economic impacts because it’s not just food. It's inputs, plastics, helium for cooling facilities, all the transportation. So, it's a lot more complex than just the food system."
“The clock is ticking,” and crop calendars put poorer countries most at risk of scarce and pricey fertilizer and energy inputs, FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said in a wide-ranging podcast published Monday with David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division.
“The last thing we want is lower crop yields and higher commodity prices and food inflation for the next year,” Torero said, noting that would likely force countries to put policies in place to lower domestic food prices, triggering higher interest rates and as a result potential slower economic growth around the world.
Torero said, "The clock is ticking. Because everything that relates to the agrifood system is linked to the crop calendar. If we don't follow the crop calendar and we don't have the inputs in the time that is needed for planting and so on and so forth, that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs, and therefore they could have lower yields. That will affect the next season, the next half of the year, or potentially the next year. So that’s the level of urgency we have right now because the last thing we want is less yields for the next half of the year and for the next year, higher food prices, commodity prices, and higher food inflation."
The latest FAO Food Price Index covered the month of March and was relatively stable thanks to ample supplies of most food commodities, especially cereals. But pressure is rising in April and will intensify in May as “farmers will make decisions” on whether to switch planting choices to adapt to fertilizer availability as well as whether to allocate more land and resources to biofuels to benefit from higher oil prices but curtailing global food supplies.
“We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe,” said Laborde. “The difference depends on the actions we take.”
Laborde, Director of FAO Agrifood Economics, said: "We have a problem of finance: finance for farmers, finance for some household that are facing a cost of living already because energy price is rising, finance problem for countries, in particular countries that are already in debt and will be also in very big trouble if interest rate start to pick up again if we have inflation."
FAO urged all countries to closely ponder biofuel mandates and above all to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers.
David Laborde also said, "In order to have trade, we need the capacity of the ships to move, but we also need the right type of trade policy and regulation. What we have seen unfortunately, and this is happening in all crises, it is countries starting to say, "Let's keep what we have. Even when we produce it." We start to see restriction on energy products, we start to see restrictions on fertilizer, including from the large suppliers of fertilizer to the world."
If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is not quickly ended, anticipatory actions should be considered, in particular asking multilateral institutions to provide financing to countries at risk of losing access to basic fertilizer inputs given their planting has started. The International Monetary Fund’s balance of payment facilities, and the Food Shock Window, following the Food Import Financing Facility FAO’s suggested in 2022, could be used as an input-financing facility allowing countries that need fertilizers today to get them quickly without triggering distorting subsidy competitions, Torero said.
FAO has already developed a crop calendar-based prioritization of countries based on when and how much fertilizer they need.
Key takeaways:
Exports of between 20 and 45 percent of key agrifood inputs rely on sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
If farmers produce with fewer inputs, there will be lower yields later this year and in 2027, with higher food commodity prices and retail food inflation likely for the next few years.
Most farmers already face thin margins and if they are bankrupted the world food supply situation will be worse for longer.
Trade and export restrictions exacerbated food price spikes in past crises, as efforts to insulate domestic markets from world markets worsened global conditions.
Fertilizer and energy markets are inelastic, so prices can rise much more than changes in traded volume imply. Markets are likely to react very quickly if vessels do not move through the Strait soon.
Unlike natural disasters or climate stressors such as El Niño, the Strait of Hormuz blockade “is something governments can resolve and have to resolve,” Torero said.
Torero said, "That’s why we keep insisting, let’s start to help the vessels to move, so that we can resolve the risks that we can resolve today. El Niño, there are different actions that we need to put in place. It's more out of our control. But the Strait of Hormuz is something that governments through diplomatic measures can resolve and have to resolve to not exacerbate the situation."
Farmers already face thin margins and if they are bankrupted the food supply situation will be worse for longer.
The risks today are notably greater than in 2022, and conditions are present for a “perfect storm” if the current situation is also affected by a strong El Niño rivaling or exceeding the pandemic crisis.
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