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STORY: UN / WORLD ECONOMIC REPORT
TRT: 2:01
SOURCE: UNIFEED - UNTV
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 10 DECEMBER 2014, NEW YORK
FILE RECENT NEW YORK
1. Wide shot, exterior of the United Nations Headquarters
10 DECEMBER 2014 NEW YORK
2. Wide shot rostrum, participants sitting
3. Wide shot, press briefing room
4. SOUNDBITE (English), Pingfan Hong, Director, Development Policy and Analysis Division, DESA,
“In the report we expect the global economic prospects to improve marginally with a projected growth of 3.1 per cent for 2015 and 3.3 per cent for 2016.”
5. Med shot, reporters listening
6. SOUNDBITE (English), Ping, Director, Development Policy and Analysis Division, DESA,
“A more moderate growth is the new normal for many economies. Large long term unemployment and high youth unemployment will remain a formidable challenge in many countries. We expect only a gradual and small improvement in this situation.”
7. Wide shot, panel members
8. SOUNDBITE (English), Pingfan Hong, Director, Development Policy and Analysis Division, DESA,
“There is a direct linkage between youth unemployment and social instability. If you look who are active in the demonstrations, most are young people. When they don't have a good expectation about their future they will find a way to vent their grief in this kind of a format, in this kind of manner. So that is a serious issue.”
9. Med shot reporters
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Matthias Kempf, Senior Economic Affairs Officer, DESA, “The recovery will continue to be led by the performance of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy will see increasing growth in 2015, and 2016, with growth reaching 3.1 per cent in 2016 based on the private consumption which is strengthening, and business investment will continue to pick up.”
11. Med shot, reporter taking notes
12. Wide shot briefing room, reporters leaving.
Global economic growth is forecast to continue increasing over the next two years, the United Nations reported today, despite legacies from the financial crisis continuing to weigh on growth, and the emergence of new challenges, including high unemployment.
The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015 (WESP) report, which was launched today, estimates growth in 2015 of 3.1 per cent and in 2016 of 3.3 per cent. Those figures are higher than the 2.6 per cent growth recorded this year, where the pace of expansion has been moderate and uneven.
Over the course of 2014, unemployment remained historically high in some regions, though appeared to have stopped rising, while inflation varied, despite being broadly subdued. Trade growth was expected to pick up, while fiscal tightening was expected to continue at a slower pace in most developed economies.
Pingfan Hong, Director of the Development and Policy Analysis Division for the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) told a press briefing at UN Headquarters, “A more moderate growth is the new normal for many economies. Large long term unemployment and high youth unemployment will remain a formidable challenge in many countries. We expect only a gradual and small improvement in this situation.”
He added, ““There is a direct linkage between youth unemployment and social instability. If you look who are active in the demonstrations, most are young people. When they don't have a good expectation about their future they will find a way to vent their grief in this kind of a format, in this kind of manner. So that is a serious issue.”
Matthias Kempf, DESA’s Senior Economic Affairs Officer said, “The recovery will continue to be led by the performance of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy will see increasing growth in 2015, and 2016, with growth reaching 3.1 per cent in 2016 based on the private consumption which is strengthening, and business investment will continue to pick up.”
Foreign direct investment inflows remained the most stable and relevant source of financing for developing countries, while capital flows were sensitive to changes in risk appetite. The dollar was expected to remain strong.
To reduce risks and meet challenges, the report says, it is imperative to strengthen international policy coordination. In particular, macroeconomic policies worldwide should be aligned toward supporting robust and balanced growth, creating productive jobs, and maintaining long-term economic and financial stability.
Analyzing countries and regions around the world, the report said that the United States fared well among developed economies, maintaining growth above 2 per cent in 2014, and expecting to continue growth in 2015 (2.8 per cent) and 2016 (3.1 per cent). The forthcoming further normalization of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy posed significant risks and uncertainties for the global economic outlook, depending on the timing and strategy of the monetary tightening, as well as the response by financial markets.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Western Europe failed to regain its pre-recession peak and Japan’s economy was expected to slow down on the back of reduced private consumption. The recovery in the Euro area was precarious, with the report citing great risks remaining. Underlying growth momentum was so slow that an exogenous event could return the region to recession.
The report saw divergent growth rates in developing countries and economies in transition during 2014, and projected continued growth momentum in Africa, with GDP growth there expected to accelerate to 4.6 per cent in 2015 and 4.9 per cent in 2016. East Asia was expected to grow fastest at around 6 per cent in both upcoming years, with South Asia set to see a gradual pick-up in economic growth.
Many developing countries and economies in transition faced vulnerabilities due to tightening global financial conditions, aggravated geopolitical tensions and the Ebola epidemic. Large current-account deficits and rapid credit growth in some large emerging economies were causes for concern, particularly if tested by a sudden change in market sentiment, similar to mid-2013 and early 2014. A broad-based downturn in emerging economies, particularly a sharp slowdown in China, would weigh on economic performance worldwide.
Oil price volatility also posed risks to exporters and importers, while geopolitical crises like Ukraine, Iraq, Libya and Syria hampered economic development and remained causes of uncertainty.
