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STORY: WTO / TRADE OUTLOOK
TRT: 2:36
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH /NATS
DATELINE: 12 APRIL 2017, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Pan right, WTO headquarters entrance
2. Close-up logo at entrance
3. Wide shot, officials arrive for press conference
4. Close up, photographer
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, WTO Director-General:
"The poor performance over the year was largely due to a significant slowdown in emerging markets, where imports basically stagnated last year, barely growing in volume terms."
6. Med shot, journalists
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, WTO Director-General:
"Figures on global export orders are at their highest level in several years. And these factors, combined with an expected recovery in global GDP, give some cause for cautious optimism. The WTO therefore expects world trade growth to rebound to 2.4% in 2017."
8. Wide shot, journalists
9. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, WTO Director-General:
"While there are some reasons for cautious optimism, trade growth remains fragile and there are considerable risks on the downside. Much of the uncertainty around the outlook is political, but not only geopolitical, part of this is also people's concerns about the impact that trade can have."
10. Med shot, journalists
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, WTO Director-General
"The fact that he economy is changing fast – driven by technology and innovation is undeniable. 8 in 10 manufacturing jobs are lost to innovative technologies and higher productivity."
12. Wide shot, podium behind
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, WTO Director-General
"At the domestic level, policies are needed to help support the workers of today and also to train the workers of tomorrow. Closing the borders to trade would only worsen the situation – it would not bring the jobs back, it would make more jobs disappear."
14. Wide shot, press conference
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is forecasting that global trade will expand by 2.4 percent in 2017, and between 2.1 and 4 percent in 2018.
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to rebound this year from its tepid performance in 2016, but only if the global economy recovers as expected and governments pursue the right policy mix, WTO economists report.
Figures were announced at a press conference in Geneva today (12 Apr).
The WTO is forecasting that global trade will expand by 2.4% in 2017; however, as deep uncertainty about near-term economic and policy developments raise the forecast risk, this figure is placed within a range of 1.8% and 3.6%. This is up from a very weak 1,3% in 2016. In 2018, the WTO is forecasting trade growth between 2.1% and 4%.
The unpredictable direction of the global economy in the near term and the lack of clarity about government action on monetary, fiscal and trade policies raise the risk that trade activity will be stifled.
