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STORY: WTO / TRADE FIGURES 2019
TRT: 3:29
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 2 APRIL 2019, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, exterior, WTO headquarters entrance
2. Wide shot, pan right, WTO main building doors
3. Wide shot, press conference
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, WTO:
"Trade underperformed last year, in 2018; with growth of 3%. Again, 2017 was 4.6%; 2018 it was 3%. And we expect for this year, 2019, even more modest growth, at just 2.6%. There is potential for a slight improvement in 2020 – but that is very much dependent on an easing of trade tensions over this period."
5. Pan right, journalists attending press conference
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, WTO:
"Rising trade tensions are the major factor to these stories today. Over the last year we have seen a range of new tariffs put in place affecting widely-traded goods. Trade simply cannot play its full role in driving GDP growth when levels of uncertainty are so high."
7. Med shot, journalist during the press conference
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, WTO:
"It is therefore urgent that we resolve tensions and focus on charting a positive path forward for global trade which responds to the real challenges in today's economies."
9. Med shot, journalist during the press conference
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, WTO:
“I think it is pretty obvious that the tensions between the United States and China play a big role. If we look at the G20 monitoring report that was issued in November of last year, we see that the trade restrictive measures imposed by G20 members amounted to 481 billion dollars. The coverage between the US and China alone would probably be around 300 billion (note for the editor: figure corrected immediately after) of that… 350 billion, sorry, of that 481 (billion). So it is a pretty significant component.”
11. Med shot, journalist during the press conference
12. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, WTO:
“What we do know is that any kind of hard Brexit would have its foremost impact on the relations between the two sides. More than half of the UK's exports go to the EU. About half, I think, comes from the EU. So the conditions of trade between the two countries are going to be affected quite significantly, I would expect. But the exact measure of that in global economic terms is difficult to tell. Also because we don't know what the future relationship between the two sides is going to be.”
13. Wide shot, press conference under way
14. Close up, journalist filming press conference
15. Various shots, reporters
World trade will continue to face strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020 after growing more slowly than expected in 2018 due to rising trade tensions and increased economic uncertainty. WTO economists expect merchandise trade volume growth to fall to 2.6percent in 2019 — down from 3.0 percent in 2018. Trade growth could then rebound to 3.0 percent in 2020; however, this is dependent on an easing of trade tensions.
Trade growth in 2018 was weighed down by several factors, including new tariffs and retaliatory measures affecting widely-traded goods, weaker global economic growth, volatility in financial markets and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries, among others. Consensus estimates have world GDP growth slowing from 2.9 percent in 2018 to 2.6 percent in both 2019 and 2020.
The above-average trade growth of 4.6 percent in 2017 suggested that trade could recover some of its earlier dynamism, but this has not materialized. Trade only grew slightly faster than output in 2018, and this relative weakness is expected to extend into at least 2019 (Chart 1). This is partly explained by slower growth in the European Union, which has a larger share in world trade than in world GDP.
