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STORY: WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK REVISION
TRT: 04:03
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGES: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 10 OCTOBER 2024, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, pan right, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Various shots, press conference
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Since the last report, inflation has cooled in advanced economies and central banks have started to lower interest rates. These developments were expected to lift consumption and investment spending and increase demand for imports.”
4. Close up, pan left, printed copy of the Global Trade Outlook
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The two most important differences between the current forecast and the previous one are, first, weaker than expected trade growth in European economies, on the import and export side, and second, stronger-than-anticipated exports in Asian economies.”
6. Close up, tilt up, Coleman Nee during press conference
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Stronger than expected Asian export growth has been sustained by increased shipments of electronics, automotive products, and other manufactured goods from China, but other economies in the region are also reporting strong export growth, including India, Viet Nam and Singapore. On the negative side, Europe's export decline has been led by automotive products, and chemicals, production of which are both concentrated in Germany.”
8. Close up, news release with Global Trade Outlook
9. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The main sectors weighing on European exports in the first half of 2024 were organic chemicals and passenger vehicles. Some organic chemicals are used in the production of vaccines, which suggests that we could be seeing a return to trend following a surge in demand during the pandemic. As for the decline in passenger vehicles exports, this could be exacerbated by technological change as established manufacturers are facing challenges in adapting to production of electric cars and are experiencing stiff competition from competitors.”
10. Close up, journalists
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“The strength of Asian exports was driven by China, where the volume of trade was up around 13 percent. This was led by exports of electronics, both components and finished products, which appear to have made the biggest contribution to year-on-year growth in Chinese exports in value terms.”
12. Close up, Global Trade Outlook report opened in a chart
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“In particular in the United States, the demand has picked up. In fact, for the United States, we have revised our forecast for imports upwards a little bit. The only exception there, really the main exception, is Europe, where things haven't recovered quite as much as we foresaw, Germany being the being the primary driver. But if you look at the numbers for 2025, we do expect things also to get better in Europe and that's exactly because of this inflation/monetary policy story.”
14. Med shot, Coleman Nee, spokesperson Ismaila Dieng
15. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
“Of course, what's detrimental to international trade is not just high trade costs, not just high tariffs, but it's also trade policy uncertainty. So, if market participants don't know what trade policy is going to be like, there's a big literature documenting the effect of trade policy uncertainty. So, in fact, that's one of the main benefits of the World Trade Organization, also, that what a system like this provides is it doesn't just provide low tariffs, but also predictable tariffs. So, anything that kind of undermines the certainty is, of course, detrimental for international trade.”
16. Med shot, officials at podium
17. Close up, tilt up, Ralph Ossa
18. Close up, Global Trade Outlook report opened in a chart
20. Various shots, attendees, journalist, officials press conference
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global goods trade is on track for gradual recovery despite lingering downside risks.
Global goods trade is projected to post a 2.7 percent increase in 2024, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6 percent, WTO economists said in an updated forecast on 10 October.
The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to increase by 3.0 percent in 2025; however, rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast. Services trade have a more favorable outlook compared to goods according to leading indicators.
In the October 2024 update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, " WTO economists note that global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3 percent year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025. The rebound comes on the heels of a -1.1 percent slump in 2023 driven by high inflation and rising interest rates. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2025.
Inflation by the middle of 2024 had fallen sufficiently to allow central banks to cut interest rates. Lower inflation should raise real household incomes and boost consumer spending, while lower interest rates should raise investment spending by firms.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East. The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes. Beyond the economic implications, we are deeply concerned about the humanitarian consequences for those affected by these conflicts."
