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STORY: WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK 2025
TRT: 7:14
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 16 APRL 2025, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND / FILE
FILE - 7 March 2025, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Wide shot, banner celebrating the 30th anniversary of the WTO
3. Med shot, WTO logo at entrance
16 APRIL 2025, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
4. Med shot, journalist leafing through the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.
5. Close up, Chief Economist Ralph Ossa shows report
6. Wide shot, zoom out, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives for the press conference
7. Med shot, Okonjo-Iweala prepares for press conference
8. Wide shot, pan right, press conference under way
9. Wide shot, pan right, press conference under way
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“Based on the trade policies currently in effect, we project, and that includes the pause, we project that global merchandise trade volumes will decline by 0.2 percent in 2025, nearly three percentage points below the level we would have expected without recent trade policy shifts.”
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
“This report comes at a time of growing uncertainty for the global economy. And the headline message is clear. The outlook for world trade has deteriorated sharply. Following a strong performance in 2024, global trade is now facing headwinds from a surge in tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty.”
12. Wide shot, camerapeople during the press conference.
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist
“There are also important risks to the forecast, some of which already mentioned by the DG. They include the possible implementation of the currently suspended "reciprocal" tariffs, as well as a broader spillover of trade policy uncertainty beyond US-related trade relationships. If enacted, "reciprocal" tariffs would reduce global merchandise trade volume growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points, with particularly severe effects on some least developed countries. A wider spread of trade policy uncertainty could cut trade growth by a further 0.8 percentage points. Taken together, these risks would lead to 1.5 percent decline in world merchandise trade volume in 2025.”
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“Beneath the global figures I just quoted lies a sharp projected decline in US-China bilateral trade. We currently estimate that merchandise trade between the two economies will fall by 81 percent, a drop that would have reached 91 percent without recent exemptions for products such as smartphones.”
15. Close up, journalist leafing through the report
16. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“A decoupling between the two major economies could have far-reaching consequences. If it were to contribute to a broader fragmentation of the global economy along geopolitical lines into two isolated blocs, our estimates suggest that global real GDP would be lowered by nearly 7 percent in the long term.”
17. Close up, photographer during the press conference.
18. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“LDCs are particularly vulnerable to current trade policy risks. Among the 10 economies facing the highest "reciprocal" tariffs, five are least developed countries. Some may see short-term gains by filling the gap left by Chinese exports to the US, but a reinstatement of "reciprocal" tariffs could carry severe consequences. Rather than raising barriers, this could be a moment to offer least developed countries some reprieve, by exempting them from new tariffs and reinforcing their fragile integration into the global economy.”
19. Wide shot, tilt up, press conference under way.
20. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“What lessons are we learning, or at least am I learning, learning from what is happening? The first one is over-dependence. One of the clearest lessons from the COVID-19 crisis was the importance of diversifying sources of supply. Today's trade tensions remind us that we must also diversify demand. Over-concentration, whether it's in where we buy from or where we sell to, leads to over-dependence, making economies more vulnerable to shocks, and fostering a sense of unfair burden sharing. That is why I'm reiterating my call for re-globalization, to deconcentrate trade by integrating more countries and regions that have long been on the margins.”
21. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
“Services trade, while not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected. Declines in goods trade will reduce demand for related services such as transport and logistics, while broader economic uncertainty is expected to dampen demand for travel and investment-related services. As a result, the volume of global services trade, and I should stress it's the volume, not the value, is now forecast to grow by 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026.”
22. Close up, journalist taking notes during press conference.
23. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
“In short, we are seeing a sharp turn in the global trade landscape. These developments highlight the importance of predictable and stable trade policies, not just for trade itself, but for broader economic resilience.”
24. SOUNDBITE (English) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“My level of concern is heightened. I'm very concerned for all the reasons we said before, the slowdown in, in fact, turnaround, contraction in global merchandise trade growth is of big concern. And as we said, if the downside risks materialize, one of which might very well do so, the 90-day pause, if that, if they "reciprocal" tariffs come back, layered with uncertainty over it, you can see a 1.5 percentage point contraction with both those things.”
25. Wide shot, pan right, press conference under way
26. Wide shot, pan right, press conference under way
27. Close up, journalists taking notes during press conference
28. Close up, pan right, journalist taking notes during press conference with report
29. Med shot, journalists during press conference
30. Wide shot, press conference under way
31. Med shot, journalists during press conference
32. Wide shot, press conference under way
33. Wide shot, press conference underway
34. Close up, camera filming Okonjo-Iweala
35. Wide shot, press conference underway
36. Med shot, camerapeople during press conference
37. Wide shot, journalists during press conference
38. Med shot, journalist during press conference
39. Wide shot, journalist during press conference
40. Wide shot, pan left, Okonjo-Iweala leaves the room
The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2 percent in 2025 under current conditions, nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a "low tariff" baseline scenario, according to the WTO Secretariat's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released today (16 Apr).
This is premised on the tariff situation as of 14 April. Trade could shrink even further, to -1.5 percent in 2025, if the situation deteriorates.
Services trade, though not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected, with the global volume of commercial services trade now forecast to grow by 4.0 percent, slower than expected.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, "I am deeply concerned by the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, including the US-China stand-off. The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular. In the face of this crisis, WTO members have the unprecedented opportunity to inject dynamism into the organization, foster a level-playing field, streamline decision-making, and adapt our agreements to better meet today's global realities."
At the start of the year, the WTO Secretariat expected to see continued expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, with merchandise trade growing in line with world GDP and commercial services trade increasing at a faster pace. However, the large number of new tariffs introduced since January prompted WTO economists to reassess the trade situation, resulting in a substantial downgrade to their forecast for merchandise trade forecast and a smaller reduction in their outlook for services trade.
