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STORY: WORLD BANK / COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK
TRT: 2:01
SOURCE: WORLD BANK RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 25 APRIL 2025, WASHINGTON DC / FILE
25 APRIL 2025, WASHINGTON DC
1. Wide shot, World Bank Headquarters in Washington DC
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Kenworthy, Senior Economist, World Bank:
“Global commodity prices are expected to tumble by 12 percent in 2025, and a further 5 percent in 2026, reaching levels not seen since 2020. Adjusted for inflation, commodity prices are expected to fall for the first time below the average between 2015 and 2019, marking the end of a boom that followed the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
FILE – TOGO
3. Various shots, grain rice trading
25 APRIL 2025, WASHINGTON DC
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Kenworthy, Senior Economist, World Bank:
“The drop is largely driven by falling energy prices, which are set to decrease by 17 percent in 2025 to the lowest levels in five years. Those forecasts reflect decelerating global oil demand, weaker growth expectations, and the rise of electric vehicles. However, this also takes place against the backdrop of the highest commodity price volatility in more than 50 years.”
FILE – BOLIVIA
5. Various shots, electronic transmission
FILE - SENEGAL
6. Various shots, port
25 APRIL 2025, WASHINGTON DC
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Kenworthy, Senior Economist, World Bank:
“Food commodity prices are expected to fall by 7% in 2025. While that is positive, it does not address the underlying causes of elevated acute food insecurity. In contrast, gold prices are setting records this year as investors seek safe haven in times of geopolitical and policy uncertainty.”
FILE – PERU
8. Various shots, seafood supply chain
FILE - MOZAMBIQUE
9. Various shots, groceries in the local market
25 APRIL 2025, WASHINGTON DC
10.SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Kenworthy, Senior Economist, World Bank:
“Falling commodity prices may mitigate some inflation risks related to trade tensions. However, for the two-thirds of developing economies that are commodity exporters, the combination of volatile and falling prices is not good for growth prospects. To cushion themselves against these shocks, these economies can prioritize fiscal discipline, improve business environments, and liberalize trade.”
FILE - MOZAMBIQUE
11. Various shots, groceries in the local market
Falling commodity prices could mute inflation risks from trade tensions. Global commodity prices expected to drop to six-year low by 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Faltering economic growth is coinciding with ample oil supply in ways that are expected to drop global commodity prices to their lowest level of the 2020s, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The decline could moderate near-term inflation risks emerging from rising trade barriers, but it could also hamper prospects for economic progress in two out of every three developing economies.
Global commodity prices are expected to tumble 12 percent in 2025, and an additional 5 percent in 2026, falling to levels not seen since 2020. In nominal terms, prices would still be higher than they were before the start of the pandemic. Adjusted for inflation, however, they are likely to fall for the first time below the average that prevailed from 2015 through 2019. That would mark the end of a boom fueled by the global economy’s rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
