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STORY: WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK UPDATE
TRT: 5:22
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 7 OCTOBER 2025, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, zoom in, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Med shot, pan right, WTO logo at entrance
3. Close up, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update report
4. Close up, journalist consulting report
5. Wide shot, pan left, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives for a press conference.
6. Wide shot, tilt down, press conference under way.
7. Wide shot, press conference under way.
8. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General:
“As you know, since the start of the year, we have seen unilateral actions by one of our most important members and an unprecedented rise in trade policy uncertainty. Despite the stiff headwinds, trade has shown resilience, thanks in no small part, to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system and members' measured response to tariff changes. World merchandise trade volume growth came in stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, up 4.9% year on year. We now expect world merchandise trade volumes to expand by 2.4% this year.”
9. Med shot, participants during press conference
10. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year in value terms in the first half of 2025 compared to 6% for world trade overall. A very rough estimate suggests South-South trade involving partners other than China is growing even faster, up around 9%.
With respect to services trade, which continues to outpace trade in goods, the new report projects 4.6% growth in 2025 in volume terms. This is up slightly from our April estimates, but still below the baseline forecast from the start of the year.”
11. Med shot, participants during press conference
12. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“Looking to 2026, the fact is there's so much uncertainty, it's hard to be conclusive. Upside risks come from strong AI-driven growth and trade or policy changes like tariff reductions. Downside risks come from spreading trade policy uncertainty and trade barriers. For now, we expect merchandise trade to grow just 0.5% in 2026 in volume terms.”
13. Med shot, participants during press conference
14. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“For the sake of growth, development and employment prospects across the WTO membership, we must sustain what is working well, but we must also reform what is not working, and we must reposition our organization to better support members to take advantage of exciting new trade opportunities, not least in the digital economy.”
15. SOUNDBITE (English): Marc Bachetta, WTO Senior Economist
“These estimates for 2026 especially depend on a variety of assumptions that could change. The tariffs still have a significant effect. It is just the timing that has changed.”
16. Close up, official at the podium during press conference
17. SOUNDBITE (English): Marc Bachetta, WTO Senior Economist
“The report finds that trade in AI-related goods was a key driver of the strong growth in the first half of 2025 with trade in these products rising 20% year-on-year in value terms, accounting for nearly half of year-on-year increase at the global level, despite representing less than 10% of total merchandise trade. The rise in AI-related trade seems to have been fueled by structural investments in digital infrastructure, from semiconductors to cloud servers.”
18. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“The outlook for next year is bleaker, yes. How concerned I am? Very! I am concerned. But the system, you saw what I said in my statement, that this is no time for complacency. Just because we see resilience in the system doesn't mean that we are home free because there's so much uncertainty.”
19. Wide shot, participants during press conference
20. SOUNDBITE (English): Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
“That's why we're insisting on the reforms, because we feel that the reforms will help to support and strengthen what is working in the system, which is obviously quite a great deal, according to the numbers, but also, then, help us, you know, sort of buttress this resilience.”
21. Wide shot, participants during press conference
22. Close up, Okonjo-Iweala addresses journalists
23. Med shot, Bachetta addresses journalists
24. Wide shot, officials at the podium during press conference
25. Med shot, economist addresses journalists
26. Med shot, pan right, officials at the podium during press conference
27. Close up, Bachetta during press conference
28. Close up, participants during press conference
29. Close up, participants during press conference
30. Med shot, Okonjo-Iweala and Coleman Nee during press conference
31. Close up, participants during press conference
32. Med shot, journalists raising hands to ask questions
33. Close up, journalist asking question
34. Med shot, Okonjo-Iweala and Bachetta during press conference
35. Med shot, zoom in, Okonjo-Iweala answering question
36. Close up, journalist taking notes during press conference
37. Med shot, journalist asking question
Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August).
However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
In the 7 October update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics", WTO economists provide new analysis on the build-up in inventories in 2025 and the robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment. They note however that trade growth will likely slow in 2026 as the impact of the cooling global economy and new tariffs set in.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "Countries' measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world--particularly among emerging economies--helped ease trade setbacks in 2025," noting that South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. South-South trade involving partners other than China is growing even faster, up around 9%.
"Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option. Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
