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STORY: REGIONAL OUTLOOKS -ASIA AND MIDDLE EAST
TRT: 2.15
SOURCE: IMF
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 19 APRIL 2013, WASHINGTON, D.C.
Washington, DC– April 19, 2013
1. Wide Asia and Pacific Department briefing
2. Mid officials and reporters at briefing
3. SOUNDBITE: (English) Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF
“Asia is clearly continuing to lead the three-speed global recovery. Having said that, we are looking at risks and they are shifting.”
4. Mid journalists as one asks question
5. SOUNDBITE: (English) Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF
“The main point is that domestic demand in Asia has been more of a key driver of Asian growth than we could have expected a couple of years ago.”
6. Wide IMF officials
7. Wide officials and journalists
8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF
“We believe in many countries, especially in emerging Asia there is a lot of room to enhance equality of revenue and expenditure policies, make growth more resilient and to ensure that growth becomes more inclusive.”
9. Wide IMF officials at end of briefing
10. Mid Middle East and Central Asia Department briefing
11. Wide of journalists and IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department Director Masood Ahmed during briefing
12. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department
“Now, when you look at the numbers for 2013, for the oil-exporting countries and the table that you have, you’ll see that the headline number for growth drops to 3.2% from 5.7. And so, the first question is, ‘Why is that? Why is there a slowdown in these countries this year?’ And, the relatively simple answer to that is that it’s almost all due to the scaling back in the growth rate of oil production, oil demand.”
13. Close reporter asking question
14. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department
“As you know, a team was in Egypt for the last two weeks. They made good progress. They’ve come back and we are continuing those discussions.”
15. Wide IMF officials and reporters at briefing
16. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department
“We are working together with them to make sure that the program will address the challenges that face Egypt. And, that will do so in a way that will protect the more vulnerable parts of society.”
17. Wide IMF officials and reporters at briefing
18. Mid IMF officials at end of briefing
Asia is leading the “three-speed” economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, while countries in transition in the Middle East are facing new pressures.
In its latest assessments of Asia and the Middle East, the IMF found grounds for both optimism and concern.
“Asia is clearly continuing to lead the three-speed global recovery. Having said that, we are looking at risks and they are shifting,” said Anoop Singh, head of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, at a press briefing held during the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
According to the Regional Economic Outlook Update for the region, Asia will see a gradual acceleration in growth to about 5 ¾% from 2012. But, the IMF noted that some risks may be emerging in several Asian economies. Though corporate and financial sector balance sheets are generally sound, the IMF said financial imbalances can worsen relatively quickly and are often difficult to unwind.
Singh said Asian economic growth is getting a boost from “robust” domestic demand.
“The main point is that domestic demand in Asia has been more of a key driver of Asian growth than we could have expected a couple of years ago.”
The IMF said the region’s response to medium-term challenges will determine whether Asia remains a global growth leader and whether gains in prosperity are evenly shared.
Singh warned of the “middle-income trap,” where countries go through intense growth but then stall after populations reach mid-range income levels.
“We believe in many countries, especially in emerging Asia there is a lot of room to enhance equality of revenue and expenditure policies, make growth more resilient and to ensure that growth becomes more inclusive.”
Turning to the Middle East, the IMF reported mixed results, with the past two years being “difficult for the region’s oil-importing countries,” said Masood Ahmed, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.
He said oil-producing countries, as a whole, saw 5.7% growth in 2012 despite a weak global environment. This growth was fueled by high oil prices. Ahmed said the IMF expects slower growth this year.
“Now, when you look at the numbers for 2013, for the oil-exporting countries and the table that you have, you’ll see that the headline number for growth drops to 3.2% from 5.7. And so, the first question is, ‘Why is that? Why is there a slowdown in these countries this year?’ And, the relatively simple answer to that is that it’s almost all due to the scaling back in the growth rate of oil production, oil demand.”
Ahmed also spoke about Egypt, where an IMF mission finished a visit this week.
“As you know, a team was in Egypt for the last two weeks. They made good progress. They’ve come back and we are continuing those discussions.”
Egypt is struggling with costly energy subsidies that contribute to fiscal deficits and balance of payment problems. Egypt and the IMF have been negotiating a $4.8 billion loan.
“We are working together with them to make sure that the program will address the challenges that face Egypt. And, that will do so in a way that will protect the more vulnerable parts of society.”
