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STORY: IMF/ MIDDLE EAST
TRT: 2.35
SOURCE: IMF
RESTRICTIONS: NONE (EMBARGOED UNTIL 12 NOVEMBER).
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 12 NOVEMBER 2013, WASHINGTON DC / FILE
FILE – RECENT, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
1. Wide shot, fountain
12 NOVEMBER 2013, WASHINGTON DC
2. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF:
“The oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa are doing relatively well. If you look at their headline growth numbers, they're down to about two percent this year but that's really because oil production is down in these countries. In part, in some countries because of supply problems, in others because of global demand being lower. But if you get behind the headline and start looking at what's happening in the non-oil parts of their economy, which is where most people are employed, that is growing at a very healthy rate, about twice the rate of the economy as a whole.”
FILE – RECENT, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
3. Wide shot, people walking
12 NOVEMBER 2013, WASHINGTON DC
4. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF:
“Even though as a group they continue to have a fiscal surplus of about four percent, almost half the country is mostly outside the GCC are already having difficulty balancing their budgets. And their fiscal space is getting smaller and smaller. So action to try and rein in the growth in some of the hard to reverse spending, things like public sector jobs, for example. Second area is to provide jobs for their young people, nationals that are coming on stream, more education, more expectations.”
FILE – RECENT, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
5. Wide shot, people walking
12 NOVEMBER 2013, WASHINGTON DC
6. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF:
“We are projecting economic growth on average in these countries to be about three percent both this year and in 2014. And three percent really is much too low to deal with the chronic unemployment problem and unemployment problem which is particularly bad for young people and which has worsened over the past two years.”
FILE – RECENT, AMMAN, JORDAN
7. Wide shot, skyline
12 NOVEMBER 2013, WASHINGTON DC
8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF:
“For the oil importing countries, the immediate priority is to create jobs, jobs to sustain the political, social and economic transitions that are now underway. To do this, because the private sector is going to be holding back for that little bit longer, governments will need to take more of a lead, more of a lead in terms of public sector financing of infrastructure projects, other job creating investment programs. And to be able to achieve this, because many of these countries don’t really have the fiscal space to undertake more spending, they will need to reorient some of the money they're already spending in current government, other functions, including some of the subsidies that are going to the very rich consumers of energy products.”
FILE – RECENT, CAIRO, EGYPT
9. Wide shot, street traffic
The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region has weakened, the IMF said in its latest regional assessment.
The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for the region, released November 12, projects growth to decline to 2¼ percent this year and to pick up in 2014 as global conditions improve and oil production recovers.
The region’s oil exporters—Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen—are facing a temporary setback in headline growth amid domestic oil supply disruptions and lower global demand, but most continue to post solid non-oil growth, the report says.
“The oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa are doing relatively well. If you look at their headline growth numbers, they're down to about two percent this year but that's really because oil production is down in these countries. In part, in some countries because of supply problems, in others because of global demand being lower. But if you get behind the headline and start looking at what's happening in the non-oil parts of their economy, which is where most people are employed, that is growing at a very healthy rate, about twice the rate of the economy as a whole,” Masood Ahmed, the Director of the IMF’s Middle East Department, said.
Notwithstanding a drop in overall growth on account of domestic oil supply disruptions and lower global demand, most oil exporters in the region will continue to see solid growth in the non-oil sector, supported by high levels of public spending and a gradual recovery in private credit growth. A recovery in oil production and a further strengthening of the non-oil economy will likely lift economic growth next year back to levels experienced in the recent past, the report says.
The report cautioned, however, that fiscal positions in this group of countries are eroding. In addition, most oil exporters do not save enough of their oil windfalls for future generations. Some countries have started to unwind fiscal stimulus this year. But without further fiscal cuts, the region’s governments will start dipping into their savings by 2016.
“Even though as a group they continue to have a fiscal surplus of about four percent, almost half the country is mostly outside the GCC are already having difficulty balancing their budgets. And their fiscal space is getting smaller and smaller. So action to try and rein in the growth in some of the hard to reverse spending, things like public sector jobs, for example. Second area is to provide jobs for their young people, nationals that are coming on stream, more education, more expectations,” Ahmed said.
Meanwhile, difficult political transitions and increased regional uncertainties arising from the complex civil war in Syria weigh on confidence in the region’s oil importers, in particular, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Sudan, and Tunisia.
“We are projecting economic growth on average in these countries to be about three percent both this year and in 2014. And three percent really is much too low to deal with the chronic unemployment problem and unemployment problem which is particularly bad for young people and which has worsened over the past two years,” Ahmed said.
