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UN PhotoWTO / 2024 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK
STORY: WTO / 2024 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK
TRT: 06:29
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
DATELINE: 10 APRIL 2024, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Wide shot, WTO headquarters exterior
2. Med shot, WTO entrance
3. Close up, WTO logo at entrance gate
4. Med shot, WTO entrance
5. Wide shot, panelists
6. Close up, report
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"We are very happy today to release our Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report for April 2024."
8. Zoom out, podium
9. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"We expect a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025 after a contraction in 2023 that was driven mostly by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. Specifically, we expect merchandise trade to grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling by 1.2 percent in 2023. However, the presence of numerous downside risks has added to the uncertainty that is inherent in all economic forecasts, and especially trade forecasts. These include regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty. In value terms, merchandise trade fell 5 percent in 2023 to US$ 24.01 trillion, but the decline was mostly offset by a 9 percent increase in commercial services trade, which reached US$ 7.54 trillion. Total goods and services trade was only down 2 percent."
10. Close up, journalist
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"While the trade environment is clearly challenging, we should not paint too dark a picture of international trade."
12. Close up, listener reading the report
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"So, the big picture is really one of resilience in international trade."
14. Tilt up, journalist typing
15. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Most of the trade volume decline between 2022 and 2023 was driven by Europe, which subtracted 1.7 percentage points from global import growth and reduced global export growth by 1.0 percentage points. Other industrialized regions also weighed on trade growth, but less so than Europe. Looking ahead, we expect all regions to make positive contributions to export and import growth in 2024."
16. Close up, camera operator and camera display
17. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"I would like to draw your attention to the section of the report dealing with evidence of global value chain fragmentation. In this section, we document that bilateral trade between China and the United States grew 30 percent more slowly since 2018 than their trade with the rest of the world. Even so, total bilateral trade in parts and components by region of major reporting countries, shown in the right panel above, has not changed much, suggesting the GVCs are evolving rather than collapsing."
18. Close up, pan, journalist typing
19. SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Services trade continued to expand rapidly in 2023, and this despite the decline of transport, which declined, which dropped, 8 percent globally. Negative transport growth reflects the return of shipping rates to pre-pandemic levels. The attacks on Red Sea shipping have reversed this downward trend. However, the impact of these recent disruptions on freight rates is moderate compared with pandemic peaks, and this is due to low demand. By contrast, the difficult economic context and geopolitical tensions have not affected consumers' spending on travel, and this is benefiting both passenger transport and tourism, two sectors which were ravaged by the pandemic."
20. Pan right, photographer to podium
21. SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Global exports of digitally delivered services reached US$ 4.25 trillion in 2023, up 9 percent year-on-year, and accounting for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. Now, the value of these services, that are digitally delivered, so traded cross borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional services to streaming of music and videos, and remote education, online gaming, they all surpassed, the value surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent in 2023."
22. Med shot, photographer
23. Pan right, listening shot panelists
24. Close up, Ralph Ossa listening
25. Close up, Coleman Nee listening
26. Wide shot podium
27. Close up, podium
28. Close up, report
29. Wide shot, journalist addressing panel
30. Med shot, journalist taking notes
31. Close up, Ismaila Dieng, Director, WTO Information and External Relations Division
The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics”, released today (10 Apr) in Geneva, forecasts a rebound in global trade but warned of downside risks.
Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation, WTO economists said in a new forecast on 10 April.
SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"We expect a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025 after a contraction in 2023 that was driven mostly by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. Specifically, we expect merchandise trade to grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling by 1.2 percent in 2023. However, the presence of numerous downside risks has added to the uncertainty that is inherent in all economic forecasts, and especially trade forecasts. These include regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty. In value terms, merchandise trade fell 5 percent in 2023 to US$ 24.01 trillion, but the decline was mostly offset by a 9 percent increase in commercial services trade, which reached US$ 7.54 trillion. Total goods and services trade was only down 2 percent."
The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling 1.2 percent in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Most of the trade volume decline between 2022 and 2023 was driven by Europe, which subtracted 1.7 percentage points from global import growth and reduced global export growth by 1.0 percentage points. Other industrialized regions also weighed on trade growth, but less so than Europe. Looking ahead, we expect all regions to make positive contributions to export and import growth in 2024."
SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"I would like to draw your attention to the section of the report dealing with evidence of global value chain fragmentation. In this section, we document that bilateral trade between China and the United States grew 30 percent more slowly since 2018 than their trade with the rest of the world. Even so, total bilateral trade in parts and components by region of major reporting countries, shown in the right panel above, has not changed much, suggesting the GVCs are evolving rather than collapsing."
SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Services trade continued to expand rapidly in 2023, and this despite the decline of transport, which declined, which dropped, 8 percent globally. Negative transport growth reflects the return of shipping rates to pre-pandemic levels. The attacks on Red Sea shipping have reversed this downward trend. However, the impact of these recent disruptions on freight rates is moderate compared with pandemic peaks, and this is due to low demand. By contrast, the difficult economic context and geopolitical tensions have not affected consumers' spending on travel, and this is benefiting both passenger transport and tourism, two sectors which were ravaged by the pandemic."
SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, Senior Statistician, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Global exports of digitally delivered services reached US$ 4.25 trillion in 2023, up 9 percent year-on-year, and accounting for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. Now, the value of these services, that are digitally delivered, so traded cross borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional services to streaming of music and videos, and remote education, online gaming, they all surpassed, the value surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent in 2023."
The April 2024 edition of the report analyses recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2023 and presents the organization’s forecasts for world trade in 2024 and 2025. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders.
For the first time, the publication includes a special analytical section on a recent development in international trade. The analysis looks at how the conflict in the Middle East has threatened sea shipments through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, disrupting trade links between Europe and Asia. It takes a deeper look at the crisis and examines possible consequences for trade in 2024.
The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics, which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org. An update of Global Trade Outlook and Statistics will be issued in October.
